报告题目：Calibrated Intervention and Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic
报告人：汤雷翰 教授 ，香港浸会大学，北京计算科学研究中心
报告时间：2020年11月2日（星期一）下午14：00
报告地点：线上，腾讯会议，会议ID：432 924 484
会议链接：https://meeting.tencent.com/s/Br3aAk7O3JV4
报告摘要：Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case studies, we construct an epidemiological model that focuses on transmission around the symptom onset. The model is calibrated against incubation period and serial interval statistics during early stages of the pandemic. Mathematical treatment of the model yields explicit expressions for the size of latent and pre-symptomatic subpopulations during the exponential growth phase. We then explore reduction of the basic reproduction number R0 through specific disease control measures such as contact tracing, testing, social distancing, wearing masks and sheltering in place. We also compare our model behaviour to pandemic evolution data from various affected regions and highlight generic and less generic features of COVID-19 pandemic development. Finally, we briefly touch upon the issue of behavioural immunity and the ensuing epidemic waves and plateaus under mitigation measures introduced by governments in different countries.
Work supported in part by the NSFC under Grant Nos. 11635002 and U1930402, and by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) under Grant HKBU 12324716.
[1] Liang Tian, Xuefei Li, Fei Qi, Qian-Yuan Tang, Viola Tang, Jiang Liu, Zhiyuan Li, Xingye Cheng, Xuanxuan Li, Yingchen Shi, Haiguang Liu, Lei-Han Tang, “Calibrated Intervention and Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic”, under review at Nature Communications (https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.07353 ).
[2] Jeremy Howard, Austin Huang, Zhiyuan Li, Zeynep Tufekci, Vladimir Zdimal, Helene-Mari van der Westhuizen, Arne von Delft, Amy Price, Lex Fridman, Lei-Han Tang, Viola Tang, Gregory L. Watson, Christina E. Bax, Reshama Shaikh, Frederik Questier, Danny Hernandez, Larry F. Chu, Christina M. Ramirez, Anne W. Rimoin, “Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review”, under review at PNAS (https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v3).
报告人简介：Dr. Lei-Han Tang completed his PhD in statistical physics at the Carnegie Mellon University in 1987 with Prof. Robert B. Griffiths. He did postdoctoral work on nonequilibrium and disordered systems at various US and German institutions including Texas A&M University, the IFF at KFA Jülich and the Institute for Theoretical Physics at the University of Cologne. He served as Lecturer at the Imperial College London from 1996-1997 before joining the Hong Kong Baptist University as an associate professor in 1997 and then full professor in 2005. He currently serves as the Director of the Institute of Computational and Theoretical Studies at HKBU.
Dr. Tang's research combines analytical and computational approaches to explore the effects of equilibrium and nonequilibrium fluctuations in various physical and biophysical contexts. In recent years, he has collaborated with experimentalists on the development of quantitative tools and models to analyze and integrate biological data and behavior at the cellular level, in particular those related to metabolism, cell motility, and development. He has also developed formalisms that integrate complex behavior of individuals with communication and feedbacks at the population level to explain collective phenomena such as oscillations and outbreaks.
Dr. Lei-Han Tang was elected a Fellow of the APS in 2010 and is a current member of the IUPAP C3 Commission on Statistical Physics (2014-2021).
